Tim Kaine

The vice presidential selection process can be like the build-up to a big game. The contestants often look roughly even on paper – one with a particular strength in this area, the other with stand-out credentials in that area – and a reasonable case can be made for either’s superiority. But then you actually get to see them on the same field and immediately realize what a gross mismatch it actually is.

A good example of this in sports is the 2007 college football title game, an even-seeming contest between 12-0 Ohio State and 12-1 Florida that quickly turned into a thorough Gator rout.  read more »

For most of the summer, Biden contracts were trading at around 10 on the Intrade political market, while Evan Bayh contracts traded much higher – peaking at 40 about 10 days ago. But look at what’s happened in just the last day, as the media has begun portraying Biden as the most likely selection.

Other notable values on the Democratic V.P. market: Tim Kaine is now trading at 15.4, which is actually up slightly from yesterday, and Kathleen Sebelius is at 14.8 – almost a five-point jump for her from yesterday. Hillary Clinton is at 9.3, unchanged from yesterday. But maybe we shouldn’t read too much into this: Wesley Clark is at an absurdly overvalued 13.8.

On the Republican side, Mitt Romney is top at 31.1, followed closely by Tim Pawlnety at 29.9.

I can’t help but think of Bob Kerrey right now. In 1992, the then-Nebraska senator (and current New School president) was one of Bill Clinton’s two vice-presidential finalists, and conventional wisdom strongly suggested Kerrey would get the nod.

The reason was simple: Clinton was an inexperienced small-state governor whose Vietnam draft avoidance would be a major issue in the fall – especially since he was running against a World War II hero, George H.W. Bush. The presence of Kerrey, a decorated Vietnam combat veteran widely celebrated for his sacrifices, would inoculate Clinton against the G.O.P.’s ugly attacks, just as Kerrey’s Senate experience would complement Clinton’s gubernatorial resume.  read more »

If, as I have argued relentlessly that he should, Barack Obama decides that an established reputation for national security and foreign policy expertise is a prerequisite for any potential running-mate, the question then becomes: Who passes the test?

Tim Kaine, eight years removed from a then-weak mayoralty and just 32 months removed from a lieutenant governor’s office, clearly doesn’t. (Maybe this is why, besides today’s two-weeks-too-late New York Times profile, the Kaine chatter has mostly vanished, especially after Russian tanks rolled into Georgia.) Neither does Kathleen Sebelius, who’s also seen as one of Obama’s personal favorites. If Obama were now leading John McCain by ten points, it’d probably be fair to assume he’d pick one of these governors.  read more »

Tim Kaine’s stock as a potential running-mate for Barack Obama has dropped markedly in the last day, with the news that Mark Warner, Kaine’s predecessor as Virginia’s governor, will be the keynote speaker at the convention in Denver.

The thinking, widely repeated in the media yesterday and this morning, is that Warner’s selection effectively excludes Kaine from the V.P. hunt since the Obama campaign wouldn’t want two Virginians occupying the featured speaking roles on two consecutive convention nights. As Keith Olbermann put it on his MSNBC show last night:

Warner's rising star might actually dim the VP chances for Virginia's current governor, Tim Kaine on this simple theory.

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For all anyone besides Barack Obama (and maybe a confidante or two) knows, the media buzz may be accurate and Tim Kaine could soon be introduced as the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee’s running mate.

But this is not at all what the prelude to an announcement is supposed to feel like.

It all started late Monday afternoon, when several credible publications – hours after Obama’s top campaign strategists met with his running-mate selection team in Washington – suggested that the 50-year-old Virginia governor had emerged as the leader among a select group of running-mate finalists. Kaine “ranks very, very high on the short list,” a source told the Politico, while The Washington Post reported that Kaine had had “very serious” conversations with Obama about joining the ticket.  read more »

Conventional wisdom can be and often is wrong, especially when it comes to running-mate speculation.

Maybe you can remember back to 1992, when just about every wise man and woman opined on the supposed importance of Bill Clinton, then a 45-year-old Southern governor, balancing his ticket with a gray-haired Northerner. Clinton, of course, ignored them and picked an even more youthful Tennessean named Al Gore, forming a visually powerful partnership that netted 370 electoral votes and made an utter mockery of conventional wisdom.

But there are times when, just like the proverbial broken clock, conventional wisdom actually gets it right. Case in point: the widely repeated view that Barack Obama needs to compensate for his perceived national security and foreign policy inexperience by selecting a running mate with reassuringly impeccable credentials in those areas.  read more »

This post has it right: No one saw this one coming. Senator Jim Webb, the former Republican and Reagan-era Navy secretary who has been touted as the perfect tough-guy complement to Barack Obama, unexpectedly and very publicly withdrew his name from VP consideration today.

The most immediate beneficiary of this could be Tim Kaine, the first-term governor of Virginia, which has emerged as perhaps the preeminent swing state of this cycle. Republicans have carried it in every election since 1964, but the Old Dominion's demographic evolution strongly favors the Democrats. Polls this year have shown Obama even with -- or even slightly ahead of -- John McCain.  read more »

Follow the drama live here-- the most up-to-the-minute returns from the George Allen/Jim Webb Senate race in the Old Dominion, refreshed every two minutes.

No one is sure where in the state these returns are coming from, though Hotline reported earlier that the returns in Alexandria, a masssively Democratic city across the Potomac from Washington, were essentially identical to the last year's gubernatorial race-- which was won by Democrat Tim Kaine by seven points.

-- Steve Kornacki