Mitt Romney

Facing reporters the day after she and John McCain went down to defeat, Sarah Palin professed not to be thinking much about the next presidential election.

“2012 sounds so far off,” she said.

Of course, that’s exactly the kind of answer that any potential presidential candidate is supposed to give now and for the next two years or so – until the 2010 midterm elections signal the more formal start of the next White House campaign cycle.  read more »

And make no mistake: the race is very much underway, and it has been for some time. In fact, there’s already been

Determining when the 2008 presidential race actually began is an inexact science, but a strong case can be made for the early summer of 2004. John Kerry and George W. Bush were locked in a tight battle in that year’s election, but several developments back then set in place some of the fundamental dynamics that have defined the campaign that now, nearly four and a half years later, is finally coming to an end.

The first was Kerry’s effort to entice John McCain to run with him on the Democratic ticket. Today, it seems ludicrous that Kerry would have considered this, that McCain might have been interested, and that the Democratic Party would have gone along with it.  read more »

The Bill Weld who governed Massachusetts from 1991 to 1997 fits the profile of the type of Republican you might expect would jump ship and endorse Barack Obama - something that Weld is set to do this morning.

In his 1990 campaign, he actually ran to the left of his Democratic opponent, the combative former president of Boston University, John Silber, scoring points with Massachusetts' socially liberal suburbanites by stressing his pro-choice, pro-gay-rights, and pro-environment views. (Only on taxes did Weld strike a more conservative posture than his opponent.)

And once elected, he earned stratospheric popularity by defining himself in opposition to the cultural conservatism of the national Republican Party.  read more »

As of this moment, this election is shaping up as a thorough beating for the G.O.P. at the presidential and Congressional levels.

The good news for the Republicans, if they are defeated comprehensively this year, is that it will lead to a much-needed overhaul of the party.

The bad news: They could be out in the wilderness for a while. When the G.O.P. lost the House in 1954, for example, it took 40 years for them to win back the chamber—and the basic question of which faces and which issues would define a post-Bush (and post-McCain) Republican Party figures to prompt protracted, and probably contentious, soul-searching within the party.  read more »

Before tonight's proceedings in St. Paul, the venerable National Journal released its latest poll of Republican "insiders," in which several dozen party establishment figures were asked -- with a guarantee of anonymity -- to handicap the 2012 G.O.P. presidential field (contingent on a John McCain defeat this fall).

Their consensus: Mitt Romney is the runaway front-runner, favored by 55 percent, with "nobody" finishing a distant second, at 15 percent. For a party that is fond of anointing an heir apparent years in advance of its nominating contests -- and then ratifying that selection through the primary process -- Romney seemed to be in a commanding situation, roughly where Ronald Reagan was in 1976, George H.  read more »

In the first speech of the 2012 presidential campaign that he's been running since exiting this year's race, Mitt Romney used his convention address to castigate Barack Obama and the Democratic Party as a band of out-of-touch leftists -- part of Romney's ongoing effort to corner the market on the conservative establishment. "Is it liberal or conservative?" he asked over and over near the top of his speech, as he reeled off a list of government failures (at least as perceived by the right), from the lack of off-shore oil-drilling to overly-powerful teachers' unions. After each item, Romney led the crowd in shouting: "It's liberal!"

Which raises the question: Is it liberal or conservative when a Massachusetts politician.  read more »

The main strategic knock on the last night's primetime G.O.P. convention session was its decided lack of red meat-attacks on Barack Obama. Instead, the evening was given over to building John McCain's biography and to framing his campaign as a principled crusade that rises above partisan politics.

Good enough, but with Sarah Palin slated to speak tonight and John McCain on tap for tomorrow night, when will the Republicans showcase the kind of bare-knuckled (and highly effective) attacks on Obama that they directed at John Kerry in New York four years ago?

A look at tonight's schedule and the some of the speech excerpts pre-released this afternoon suggests they will try to kill two birds with one stone this evening.  read more »

Sarah Palin may or may not have been the right choice for him, but at least John McCain must be feeling good today about his decision to pass on Mitt Romney as his running-mate.

Romney badly wanted the spot and devoted the last six months—after dropping out of the presidential race in February—to pursuing it, using countless television and radio appearances to trash Barack Obama and herald McCain as an unusually capable, qualified and principled leader.

This posture marked an abrupt shift from his G.O.P. primary strategy (in which he positioned himself as the true conservative and attacked McCain—relentlessly—as a heretic whose nomination would destroy the soul of the party) so much that it prompted a reasonable question: Was Romney interested in helping McCain win in 2008, or just in positioning himself to run again in 2012?

The  read more »

ST. PAUL—Word that Sarah Palin’s 17-year-old daughter, Bristol, is five months pregnant was easily the biggest bit of non-Gustav-related news to emerge from the opening day of the Republican convention.

It’s doubtful that this revelation will end up hurting the G.O.P. ticket in the fall—Ms. Palin’s statement made it clear that her daughter plans to keep the child and marry the father, the least politically explosive denouement for such a dicey situation—but it nonetheless seems to confirm a widespread suspicion: Ms. Palin was not thoroughly vetted by John McCain’s team.

Otherwise, this news would not be leaking on the convention’s opening day.  read more »

What kind of day has Tim Pawlenty had? The kind where your value on the Intrade Republican vice-presidential future markets shoots up by more than 50 points -- while your chief opponent's stock plummets by 31. The Minnesota governor is now trading roughly where Joe Biden was just before word of his selection by Barack Obama broke.

Karl Rove apparently phoned Joe Lieberman last week and demanded that he withdraw his name from consideration as John McCain’s running mate, a request that the Connecticut senator ignored. (For what it’s worth, Rove – as is his wont – denies this.) This prompts the question: If McCain ultimately decides not to pick Mitt Romney for VP, might Rove’s intervention be the reason?

Rove has made no secret of his support for Romney as McCain’s VP. He is not alone in this among powerful Republican establishment figures, many of whom (whether openly or quietly) preferred Romney back in the primary season.

But why are they so adamant? A logical explanation: More than usual, this year’s Republican VP nomination is seen as a stepping stone to the 2012 nod – especially if the nod goes to Romney, who already laid a solid groundwork for a ’12 campaign this year.  read more »

On Tuesday evening, inside the Pepsi Center in Denver,  the Media Mob had a moment of clumsiness, involving Karl Rove's laptop computer.

It was a few short hours before Hillary Clinton was to address the delegates. The green room of the Fox News sky box inside the arena was buzzing with activity. Energy was high. The quarters were close.

The Media Mob was sitting on smallish couch conducting an interview with Fox News' dynamic anchor Megyn Kelly, who is reporting from the floor of the Pepsi Center, throughout the convention. A laptop computer, the screen flipped open, rested on one arm of the couch behind me.  read more »

tomscocca (9:40:01 PM): How come Mitt Romney showing up in Denver means GOP Serious About Attacking Obama rather than Despised Has-Been Begs for Attention?

For most of the summer, Biden contracts were trading at around 10 on the Intrade political market, while Evan Bayh contracts traded much higher – peaking at 40 about 10 days ago. But look at what’s happened in just the last day, as the media has begun portraying Biden as the most likely selection.

Other notable values on the Democratic V.P. market: Tim Kaine is now trading at 15.4, which is actually up slightly from yesterday, and Kathleen Sebelius is at 14.8 – almost a five-point jump for her from yesterday. Hillary Clinton is at 9.3, unchanged from yesterday. But maybe we shouldn’t read too much into this: Wesley Clark is at an absurdly overvalued 13.8.

On the Republican side, Mitt Romney is top at 31.1, followed closely by Tim Pawlnety at 29.9.

In an interview on Fox News today, Mike Huckabee registered his objection to the idea of Mitt Romney joining this year’s Republican ticket.

“Mitt Romney has had very definite swings of positions— not just one or two little things, but on many of the issues,” Huckabee said.  He later added: “I think that there are better choices for Senator McCain, that would have the approval of values voters.”

Huckabee’s concerns, it’s probably fair to assume, have a lot more to do with 2012 then with 2008. Both Huckabee and Romney saw their reputations enhanced by their campaigns this year, and each now has high name recognition and a sizable following within the G.  read more »

Last week, I pretty much wrote off the idea that John McCain will offer his running-mate slot to Mitt Romney. I probably shouldn't have. (Talk about a flip-flop ...)

My reason for dismissing Romney was simple: The political style he exhibited in his own presidential campaign -- abandoning just about all previously held principles in an effort to hew to every conservative interest group's issues checklist -- fundamentally violated McCain's sense of propriety and honor. This went far beyond, in my estimation, the usual hurt feelings and sour grapes that campaigns produce. So why, I asked, with all the options that he has, would McCain actually give Romney his No.  read more »

The case for Mitt Romney as John McCain’s running mate is strong and very easy to make.

He’s well known, popular with the party base, a strong performer on television, and would bring big bucks, vigor and youth (or at least the appearance of it – he is 61, after all) to a Republican ticket that desperately needs all three. Plus, Romney’s corporate background would offer badly needed cover to McCain on the economy, while his family name could boost the ticket in Michigan and his Mormon faith could help in Colorado and Nevada. Factor in the apparent lack of all-star VP options for McCain, and the former Massachusetts governor’s prospects only seem to brighten.  read more »

This just came in from the McCain campaign:

ARLINGTON, VA -- U.S. Senator John McCain's presidential campaign today announced that John McCain and Governor Mitt Romney will hold a media availability in Utah on Thursday, March 27th.

The release goes on to note that the event will be at 2 p.m. at the Million Air F.B.O. in Salt Lake City.

CNN is reporting that Mitt Romney will endorse John McCain at an event in Boston at 3:30, and that he is going to ask his delegates to support McCain as well.  read more »

The McCain campaign just announced that Gary Bauer has endorsed John McCain. Bauer is the onetime president of the Family Research Council, founder of the Campaign for Working Families PAC, former presidential candidate, and an enthusiastic supporter of traditional marriage and turning over Roe v. Wade.

His endorsement should help soothe some of the conservative rebellion against what seems like McCain’s inevitable path to the Republican presidential nomination. It also seems like a bit of a blow to Mike Huckabee, whose wins this weekend were a sign of support from social conservatives. Huckabee had just earned the endorsement of James Dobson.

Release after the jump.  read more »

The race for the 2012 Republican nomination is on, with the two early leaders—Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee—using this year’s campaign, in very different ways, to position themselves for what many in the party privately believe will be an open nomination.

Granted, it’s somewhat premature to discuss the 2012 race when John McCain, who is now the presumptive nominee, actually leads Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama (slightly) in some polls. If McCain wins in the fall (and seeks a second term at age 76) then there probably won’t be any room for Romney or Huckabee or anyone else four years from now.

But the same was true back in 1996, when Lamar Alexander and Steve Forbes came up short in the primaries and immediately started laying the groundwork for follow-up bids in 2000—even while publicly professing that they expected Bob Dole to be running for reelection that year.

Both Mr. Romney and Mr. Huckabee are well aware of the G.O.P.’s tendency to nominate the candidate whose “turn” it is, a pattern that—in a very roundabout way—has reaffirmed itself with the success of Mr. McCain, the second-place candidate from the last open Republican contest. In fact, George W. Bush is the only non-incumbent Republican since Barry Goldwater to win the presidential nomination on his first try.

And with Mr. McCain emerging as the nominee and quite possibly facing defeat in the fall, the race between Mr. Huckabee and Mr. Romney seems to be on to play the next-in-line role in 2012.

There was no accident in the setting Mitt Romney chose to end his 2008 presidential bid. In front of some of the right’s truest believers at the annual Conservative Political Action Conference, he presented his withdrawal as a patriotic act of self-sacrifice, sparing his party a protracted nomination fight and freeing Republicans to unite against the Democrats and “a surrender to terror.”

He might just as well have announced his ‘12 candidacy on the spot. The CPAC attendees represent the conservative activists who Mr. Romney tried mightily to unite behind his candidacy this year. He had some success, but not quite enough. Now he has four years to try again.

More after the jump.  read more »

OK, so let's assume for the sake of this exercise—or maybe just because we feel like it—that Michael Bloomberg is still actively considering a run for president.

Conventional wisdom was that Bloomberg would be more likely to run if Romney, who had fashioned himself the conventional, party-line conservative in the race, became the nominee, leaving moderate Republicans and Republican-leaning independents up for grabs. So now that he's not around to stand in the way of John McCain, a presumptive nominee with, presumably, much wider appeal, what effect could it have on Bloomberg's calculation?  read more »

The Log Cabin Republicans just sent out a gleeful email (subject: We Did It!) saying they "led the way" in pushing Mitt Romney out of the G.O.P. race and today "a great day for the Republican Party."

Email after the jump.  read more »

In part, Mitt Romney was simply accepting reality—rather than spending millions more from his own pocket to fight it—when he suspended his campaign today.

With John McCain's delegate lead, the G.O.P.'s delegate distribution rules, and the lingering presence of Mike Huckabee, there was simply no plausible way for Romney to beat out McCain for the nomination.

But his move, which he couched in terms of party unity, could also be seen an effort to preserve his viability for 2012, should McCain go down to defeat this fall.  read more »

After hearing that Mitt Romney would likely drop out of the Republican primary, Michael Bloomberg told reporters at a press conference in Midtown this morning that he felt "sorry" for him, and hoped he would stay active in public life.

"It's sad because I know how much they've tried and they put their heart and their soul, and in many cases, their personal wealth into it," Bloomberg said. "They believe they can make a difference.  read more »

Mitt Romney just withdrew from the race for the Republican presidential nomination after a poor showing in the Super Tuesday primaries—he won the states he has lived in and a series of not particularly contested caucuses.

In his speech to the Conservative Political Action Conference, Romney noted that he "hates to lose" but is withdrawing because "If I fight on in my campaign, all the way to the convention, I would forestall the launch of a national campaign and make it more likely that Senator Clinton or Obama would win."

He also said, "we cannot allow the next President of the United States to retreat in the face evil extremism!!"

Full text of the speech after the jump.  read more »

Mark Halperin is reporting that Romney will drop out of the race, possibly making his announcement at Conservative Political Action Conference today.

UPDATE: CNN is now reporting that Romney will suspend his campaign.

Following John McCain’s victory in Florida last week the chorus of McCain-hatred grew louder on talk radio shows and on many conservative blogs.

Rush Limbaugh declared that McCain was not conservative and unacceptable as a candidate. Formerly respectable conservative figures took delight in criticizing McCain’s war record—yes, his war record—by tallying up the number of planes he had lost in combat. Ann Coulter and James Dobson, a social conservative leader and head of the Focus on the Family organization, declared McCain so indistinguishable from Hillary Clinton, the featured villainess in any conservative drama, that they would vote for her or stay home.

In short the McCain villifiers doubled down on their bet that they could derail McCain and lift their favored alternative, Mitt Romney, to victory.  read more »

Each of the Republicans can claim some kind of victory tonight, but the big winner is clearly John McCain-–with a major assist from Mike Huckabee.

John McCain won the most delegates today, with a tally that could reach as high as 600, depending on how California shakes out (it has more than half of the number needed to clinch the nomination). McCain did win the most states, but his delegate total was additionally padded by victories in some large winner-take-all states, like New York and New Jersey. He can also claim a win in the South (Oklahoma), along with a string of close second-place finishes in that region (which netted him a bundle of delegates, since those states award their delegates proportionally). His California victory makes for a powerful statement for the kind of day he had.  read more »

With tallies still outstanding from California and a few other states, NBC has Barack Obama leading the day's pledged delegate county, 594-546. (Slightly closer than the Obama campaign’s reported estimate.)

On the Republican side, the numbers are less clear, but NBC is predicting that John McCain will receive between 400 and 600 today, while Mitt Romney will grab between 150 and 400, and Mike Huckabee will finish with about 200.

To raucous cheers, Mitt Romney just boasted that he's now won all of the states in which he has lived: "Michigan, Massachusetts and Utah."

He didn't mention New Hampshire, where he is a part-time resident (a summer home in Wolfeboro) and where he lost the Republican primary to John McCain.

With John McCain, Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney all moving on after Super Tuesday, the next contests will be this Saturday in Louisiana, Washington State and Kansas.

With the strength he has shown in his home region tonight, Huckabee could parlay his strong Super Tuesday performance into Louisiana and Kansas. Washington would be a more natural fit for McCain, although Romney has been trying to pitch himself as a "western" candidate. (This Saturday's contest in Washington is caucus, however, which probably won't matter as much as the primary, which is 10 days later).  read more »

Mitt Romney is expected to speak shortly. Notably, he is doing so before California's results come in. Delegates are awarded proportionally there, but Romney could very much use a win. This has not been a very good night for Romney, since he was blocked out of contention across the South by Mike Huckabee. But it has not been nearly as disastrous as some had forecasted, since McCain's victories (outside of Oklahoma, perhaps) might be limited to blue states -- furthring the contention of some on the right that he is the favorite candidate of moderate and liberal Republicans only.  read more »

As a fuller picture of the results in Southern states emerges, it now appears that Mike Huckabee has undermined Mitt Romney's campaign. Romney, whose last-ditch strategy involves trying to rally the party's conservative base around him in opposition to John McCain and his supposed crimes against conservatism, badly needs a handful of wins in states like Georgia, Tennessee, Oklahoma, and Missouri -- places where his new message should most resonate. But Huckabee's regional and cultural appeal in those states threatened to steal the voters that Romney is targeting.  read more »

The biggest news for Republicans at 8:00 is that Massachusetts has been won -- decisively -- by Mitt Romney. John McCain has campaigned in the Bay State, hoping to capitalize of disaffection with Romney from Republicans who feel he abandoned them as governor to pursue his national ambitions. McCain had the backing of two former Republican governors -- Paul Cellucci and Jane Swift (who was pushed out of the corner office by Romney in 2002) -- and hoped to benefit from residual goodwill from 2000, when he blasted George W.  read more »

That Barack Obama has won Georgia is no surprise. That he apparently has won it by such a large margin -- perhaps exceeding 70 percent of the statewide vote, if early reports are true -- is a shock, and could portend trouble for Hillary Clinton nationwide tonight. Georgia's Democratic electorate, like South Carolina's, is about 50 percent black, and Obama has apparently won this constituency overwhelmingly.  read more »

Another example of the enduring John McCain-Mike Huckabee alliance and its consequences for Mitt Romney: Huckabee just won the West Virginia State Republican Convention thanks to an assist from McCain.

Romney targeted West Virginia, where a vote of the 1,100 delegates at the state G.O.P. convention determines which presidential candidate will receive all 18 of West Virginia's delegates to the national convention.

More after the jump.  read more »

John McCain has been steadily rising in the polls for many weeks. But today, it looks like he may be on the verge of losing California--even though just one week ago he led the state. Here are a few points that could help make sense out the Golden State Republican primary.

1) Immigration. A Field Poll, the gold standard for California polling, released two weeks ago found that 40 percent of G.O.P. primary voters pegged illegal immigration as the top issue -- perhaps not a surprise given that California, a border state, once embraced Proposition 187, which barred state spending on illegal immigrants and their children. Romney has courted these voters relentlessly in this campaign, consistently attacking McCain for his support of comprehensive immigration reform -- or "amnesty," in the rhetoric Romney has adopted.

More after the jump.  read more »

Yesterday Bob Dole came to the defense of John McCain in a letter to Rush Limbaugh that hailed McCain as a "mainstream conservative."

In a television appearance this morning on Fox & Friends, Mitt Romney told the host, Dole is "the last person I would want to write a letter for me."

Now, McCain is returning the favor. His campaign just issued the following statement:

"Governor Romney's attack on Bob Dole is disgraceful, and Governor Romney should apologize. Bob Dole is a war hero who has spent his life in service to this nation and nobody has worked harder to build the Republican Party. Bob Dole deserves the respect of every American and certainly every Republican.

Full statement after the jump.  read more »