Politics

We're going to get a head start on celebrating the 4th, so there'll be no Politicker updates -- barring some major, unforeseen news development -- for the next few days. The rest of the crew will be back next Wednesday, but I'll be here bright and early Monday morning (and I have a feeling Azi will make a guest appearance or two on Monday as well). Enjoy the 4th, and be careful with the fireworks and sparklers.

Marc Ambinder fully explains the nuances of John McCains’ sort-of-but-not-really shake-up today.

Meanwhile, whoever’s calling the shots in McCain’s campaign clearly believes they can get more mileage out of the Wesley Clark flap.

Polls, polls, polls: Gallup national: Obama +2; Florida: McCain +8; Georgia: McCain +8

Father Andrew Greeley has something to say – and you will read it (if you click this link).

There could be a very innocent explanation to the Washington Post’s story about Obama’s discounted mortgage.

Turns out that six-year-old kid wasn’t trying to get Obama to do the Terrorist Fist Bump after all.

A poll finds that there has been extensive damage to Michelle Obama’s image, particularly among white voters.  read more »

Some of the most significant collateral damage from Eliot Spitzer's implosion involves the reputations of two of his one-time allies: former communications director Darren Dopp (the original scapegoat for Troopergate) and David Soares, the Albany County District Attorney (who is the current scapegoat).

Dopp has been on the offensive trying to clear his name, speaking at length with the New York Times, and -- just this this morning -- providing the New York Post with his version of the testimony he gave to the state’s Public Integrity Commission.

The transcript Dopp provided undermines Soares’ initial report into the Troopergate incident, which alleged Dopp acted as a rogue agent and inappropriately ordered the state police to re-create travel records for state Senate Majority Leader Joe Bruno, who received protection from the police (as is customary for legislative leaders).  read more »

Somebody please join the Facebook group "Friends of Adolfo Carrion" -- because right now the Bronx Borough President and comptroller candidate is the only member of his group.

Now, I'm sure there will be plenty of people 'friending' Adolfo soon enough, but his lonely-seeming profile -- he's been his own best friend for more than a week now -- does provide a valuable lesson in Campaigning 101: If you're going to launch a social networking page for your favorite candidate, make sure you find him some friends right away. Otherwise, he might look kind of sad.

Are there any other pages like this out there?

Rep. Nydia Velazquez was hardly the only Hillary Clinton supporter to do something like this, but she was certainly the most vocal among New York’s congressional delegation: As the primary season was winding down, Velazquez – in an effort to prop up Clinton’s vice-presidential prospects – went before the press and declared that Barack Obama and his campaign had "a problem of connecting with Latino voters."

Clinton would solve this problem for Obama, Velazquez said, because “the Latino community sees her as a Hispanic leader.  read more »

Here’s the pitch Barack Obama’s campaign made to a bunch of New York donors recently, which basically says he’s leading John Mccain among younger, female and Hispanic voters.

That last one is interesting since. as some Hillary Clinton supporters reminded me, he hadn't done that well with Hispanic voters.

The decision of Congressional Quarterly, one of several insider publications that tracks the competitiveness of House and Senate races, to change its designation of the contest for Vito Fossella’s 13th District seat from toss-up to "Democrat favored" is causing some discussion today.

The move is understandable given the awful predicament in which the district’s Republicans find themselves. But it’s a potentially significant milestone in light of the district’s long loyalty to the G.O.P. and its status as the last New York City-based district in which Republicans can even compete at the congressional level.

It raises the question: What other districts in this area might change partisan hands this fall?

CQ lists nine other House races in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut as either toss-ups or leaning toward one party or the other.  read more »

Here’s the form Hillary Clinton supporters are asked to fill out when donating money to help retire her campaign debt.

The form was sent to me this morning by a reader who received it recently. It reads in part, “I hereby designate my contribution to be used towards 2008 primary election debt retirement for Hillary Clinton for President. I am making this contribution with my own personal funds and not with funds provided by any other person."

One question to think about is how many of Clinton's donors are even eligible to help her out. After all, wasn't one of the reasons she fell behind Barack Obama in the money game the fact that she relied on wealthy donors who maxed out -- contributing $2,300 to her primary and general election funds? Those supporters, no matter how much they may want to, can't now give her more money.

This morning, The Politico ran an innocuous-seeming story in which a series of unnamed Republican consultants and strategists – with the exception of Ed Rollins, who went on the record – took turn taking shots at various aspects of the McCain campaign’s strategy.

The story didn’t seem particularly surprising, given (a) McCain’s underdog status in the presidential race, which automatically makes many Republicans uneasy; and (b) the general willingness of unnamed consultants and “strategists” to use the cloak of anonymity to tell the world how much better Campaign X would be if they were running the show.  read more »

It’s Wednesday, which means a brand new Observer has hit the streets. Here’s some of what you’ll find inside:

Jason Horowitz has all of the juicy details on the “wholesale absorption” of Hillary Clinton’s braintrust into Barack Obama’s campaign.

Azi Paybarah spends some time with Congressional candidate and friend-of-Chuck-D Kevin Powell.

Joe Conason sticks up for Wesley Clark – and reminds us about the example of James Stockdale.

The editorial page has a fondness for Joe Bruno…

…while Eliot Brown explores whether Bruno’s departure might mean that the state Senate will no longer be the graveyard for tenant-friendly legislation.

And I write about how Barack Obama’s hands will be tied as President when it comes to Middle East issues.

You’ve probably seen or read about the new poll in Connecticut that gives Joe Lieberman his worst marks ever – a 45-43 approval rating. A second poll released this morning finds that Lieberman’s addition to John McCain’s ticket would actually turns off far more Connecticut voters than it would excite.

The numbers can be partly attributed to Lieberman’s prominent role in the presidential campaign as a McCain surrogate. Elected officials often pay a price in their backyard for venturing onto the national stage. Not surprisingly, Chris Dodd – who spent most of 2007 and the first three days of 2008 waging a hopeless presidential campaign – also scored his worst-ever job approval numbers in the same poll.  read more »

Kendall Stewart, who is running for State Senate in Brooklyn, is plowing ahead with the notion that he knows how to get money for local community groups, despite the trouble two of his staffers got into for allegedly misusing public money intended for local community groups.

"I want to thank you for all the years of support and your fair and unbiased approach to reporting the news," Stewart says in this "press invitation."

Stewart and fellow City Councilman Simcha Felder are running in a Democratic primary against incumbent Kevin Parker.

As Azi mentioned yesterday, the folks who usually run this here Politicker are off for the next few days (although the inexhaustible Azi has already sent me an item that I will be posting momentarily), and I'll be sitting in until they return. By all means, please email me with any tips, news links, or general announcements that you think are Politicker-worthy, or even just to say hi. You can get me at skornacki [at] observer.com.

“Stunning G.O.P. setbacks” have prompted Congressional Quarterly to move the race for Vito Fossella’s seat, long held by Republicans, two whole categories – from toss-up to “Democrat favored”

John McCain will have about $85 million to spend against Barack Obama this fall. The NRA will pony up about that much to do the same thing.

It sort of looks like Obama has been taking home mortgage advice from Chris Dodd.

Also, Obama is promising to spend $500 million on faith-based charities because there are some problems that “are simply too big for government to solve alone" -- not because he's trying to win Evangelical voters.  read more »

The economy

It's double-issue time for the Observer, meaning that the regular crew will taking a break for a few days. Steve Kornacki, whose enthusiasms include the Boston Celtics and Bob Newhart records, will be minding the store.

I’ll be checking email periodically but been ordered to keep my Treo usage to a minimum. So if you’ve got some interesting tidbit (out of Schedule C, perhaps?), or find yourself unexpectedly close to a certain billionaire mayor muttering about his favorite watering hole in D.C., send it to skornacki [at] observer.com.

Over to you, Steve.