The Clintons Can't Spin Obama's Stunning S.C. Victory
The Clinton campaign spent the last week frantically inveigling the media to attach an asterisk to the South Carolina results.
And it just blew up in their faces.
Right up until the very end, just hours before the polls closed, Bill Clinton—the same Bill Clinton who had previously summoned all the righteous indignation he could to proclaim his campaign's innocence in encouraging a racial divide—sought to chalk up his wife's looming defeat to identity politics.
"Jesse Jackson won South Carolina twice, in '84 and '88," the former President reminded reporters just before the polls closed—even though no one had asked him about race.
But Jesse Jackson—whose victories came when South Carolina held caucuses, not primaries—never won like this.
The South Carolina electorate was split almost exactly in half between whites and blacks, and as expected, Obama took the lion's share of the black vote—81 percent, according to exit polls (to Hillary's 17 percent).
But Obama also fared better—much better—than anticipated among white voters. John Edwards, native of rural Seneca, snagged 39 percent of the white vote, just ahead of Hillary's 36 percent. The other quarter, though, went to Obama, a showing that turned the primary into an all-out rout for the Illinois Senator. And, contrary to some expectations, black women were as loyal to Obama as black men.
For the first time in four Democratic nominating contests, one candidate has now scored a double-digit (and then some) victory: Obama won Iowa by eight points over John Edwards, while Hillary claimed New Hampshire by three and Nevada by six. Obama's South Carolina victory is in a whole different league.
Bracing for defeat, the Clintons focused on downplaying expectations all week, sending Hillary out of the state for two critical days and placing her in Tennessee as the returns came in. And Bill Clinton, days before his Jesse Jackson comment, predicted that black voters would flock to Obama—a formula that would all but guarantee an Obama win.
Clearly, the Clintons wanted the bar set so low that the media would either write off an Obama victory as a case of blacks voting for their own or play up a "stronger than expected" showing by Hillary—say, losing by only six points. And an outright Hillary victory? Well, that would be cause for handing her the nomination on the spot.
But for all their contingency planning, the Clintons could not have anticipated this kind of defeat. There is no moral victory in losing by this margin. And there is no asterisk, either, because Obama just showed that he can win over substantial white support even while running up huge margins among black voters. The Clintons wanted Obama to be tagged as "the black candidate"—hence Bill's decision to bring up Jesse Jackson—but they have failed. His ability to pull together a multiethnic coalition has survived South Carolina.
The implications for the next wave of primaries are considerable.
Nearly two dozen states will vote on February 5 and for the first time, retail campaigning will not be a heavy factor in any of them. In a quasi- national primary like this, momentum is a key factor, something that Hillary—by virtue of her surprise New Hampshire win and her convincing Nevada showing—had in abundance heading into today. A solid performance in South Carolina, even in defeat, would have probably been enough to preserve the momentum and inevitability that had given her large leads in the biggest states voting on February 5, like California and New Jersey.
After missing opportunities in New Hampshire and Nevada, South Carolina became Obama's last hope for building the kind of momentum that could threaten Hillary on Super Tuesday: Win by a larger than expected margin and reap the benefits of press coverage about his rejuvenated campaign. And now he has won just the thumping victory he needed.
More than that, South Carolina's exit polls portend some serious potential trouble for the Clintons on Feb. 5. If he can receive similar black support, Obama may be positioned for resounding wins in the southern states that vote that day, like Georgia, Alabama, and Tennessee.
But even in states without substantial black populations, Obama can compete. Among white voters in South Carolina, Hillary only defeated him by a 3:2 margin—much less than the Clinton campaign had been anticipating. It's true that native son John Edwards may have skewed these numbers, but perhaps not substantially: Edwards voters looking for change or a personal connection with a candidate probably favor Obama as their second choice candidate.
South Carolina's Democratic electorate is 50 percent black. But if the state's exit poll model holds on February 5 (with Obama taking 80 percent of the black vote and losing whites 3:2 to Hillary) he would still be positioned to win a state where only 20 percent of the electorate is black. And if he can improve his showing among whites even slightly, it would take an even smaller chunk of black voters to put him over the top. Of course, some February 5 states have substantial Hispanic populations, a group with which Obama struggled in Nevada, but he has established in South Carolina that he does not need to rely on black voters to win.
It's been clear for a while that the Democratic race will not end on February 5. But before tonight, it looked like Hillary was on pace to have a much better Super Tuesday than Obama. Not anymore.
Go Barack, go! Bill Clinton has been talking for AN HOUR, holding a Missouri audience HOSTAGE -- talking about HIS Harlem office (like THEY care), HIS Presidency, HIS Governorship in Arkansas, HIS record..... Iowa doesn't count. SC doesn't count. Nevada - voter suppression. NH - tears. Watch out...HE IS COMING TO YOUR STATE!!! How do we get rid of Bill in New York? All ideas from all States welcome!?! Loretta Sanchez said in CA they vote for WOMEN. Nice. More identity politics from the Clintons to come...and more Hillary tears and Bill red-faced rage!
I think the real implosion will be on the Feb. 5th. The Clintonians will pull out ALL the stops. Loretta Sanchez threw down the gauntlet re GENDER politics, and Bill is STILL talking at 8:44pm -- over an hour -- GIVING HILLARY'S CONCESSION SPEECH about HIMSELF!!! Where is Hillary??? She can't even RUN alone and speak for herself. As a feminist I am disgusted and ask all women to vote against this as a model. We should repudiate it...and the tears. How the NYT could have validated this dysfunctional, petulant two-some is very SAD. They can't even run a campaign and accept loss with grace. How can they run the Country? Petulance is something we want to get away from after the Bush dynasty. The Clintons have proven themselves to be the other side. Caroline Kennedy Schlossberg is doing an Op-Ed in tomorrow's NYT validating and endorsing Barack Obama. Turn the page!
A President Like My Father - Op-Ed, NYT - Sunday - 1/27/08
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/27/opinion/27kennedy.html?hp
A President Like My Father - Op-Ed, NYT - Sunday - 1/27/08 - Caroline Kennedy Schlossberg
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/27/opinion/27kennedy.html?hp
I can spin it. The racist blacks voted for Obama.
A resounding victory for Obama! Seriously though, who gives a rat's what Caroline Kennedy has to say about politics?
Bill's Harlem office My foot! He has been there exactly twice according to the security people there! He has an office there ONLY because his first choice, Manhattan, was so expensive that the public such a fuss that he had to find a cheaper place. Ergo Harlem. He could care less about the blacks except to drag them out as useful idiots when he needs the,
Also Isn't his WIFE running? What is this about ME ME ME.
Shut up Bill. take your fat, red face and go away. If Hill can't win without you, she shouldn't be in the office.
The blacks are not stupid, they can see right through you. Quit insulting their intelligence. Creep!
But how many Super Delegates have the Clintons already bought?
Obamaca, Obamaca, God shed his grace on thee . . .
He may be 60's Marxist lite warmed over, but Anything But Hillary makes my heart sing.
Obamaca, Obamaca, God shed his grace on thee . . .
He may be 60's Marxist lite warmed over, but Anything But Hillary makes my heart sing.
The Clintoons have always been - and will always be - Arkansas social climbers and disreputable trailer trash.
Billary days may be over. Thank God. Trouble is, they will still get nastier yet.
Bein' from the south (born and raised in Georgia, livin' in Alabama now) I saw Billy Jeff Clinton for the kind of man he was after his first 90 days in office. I tried to tell people who loved him that he was up to no good but they didn't want to hear it. Now i sit in the shade readin' Freud... and crow about how them psycho-chickens always come home to roost. WillyJeff is a little squirt who needs his head beat in. No kiddin'
"Loretta Sanchez said in CA they vote for WOMEN." I heard this to, how is this acceptable? Why is the media not talking about this today, keeping in mind the beginning of the quote which stated that in South Carolina they vote on race. It is just as bad as "Jesse Jackson won South Carolina twice, in '84 and '88," the former President reminded reporters just before the polls closed—even though no one had asked him about race. If we are going to beat the Republicans, we have to show why we are different from them. The Clintons are way too divisive, and they will let the party divide if that is what it takes to win. If you read a blog from a CNN commentator, he said that an AP writer was told by a leader in the Clinton camp that their goal in South Carolina was to paint Barack as the "black candidate."
I'm a Californian and a woman and I never voted for Boxer or Feinstein. I vote with a clear conscience on who I think is best qualified for the job, period, regardless of race or gender. I look at the record of what they've done. As a woman, I am deeply embarassed by Hillary. She let that dog of a husband get away with everything while pledging to stand by her man. She, singlehandedly, has set women back fifty years! Now, as far as her record goes, she has done nothing of importance to attach her name to. What has she done for New Yorkers? She hasn't authored a single piece of legislation, not one, and the only thing her name is attached to is that she served on a committee to review how trash is handled. Now, to add insult to injury, she's allowing that rat-dog husband to do her campaigning for her. It's perfectly CLEAR who wears the pants in *that* family. If Hillary wins, HE will take the No. 1 position.
NEO-LIB CLINTONS FEEL BLACK SUFFERING AND SOLEMNLY PROMISE UTOPIA
Neo-Lib Clintons every so cleverly love the blacks, when they desperately need to lure them for their votes; otherwise they are cleverly ignored. It is the pretentious tactic that has worked over and over again.
But now there is Obama who mocks and rebukes the Clinton crooks; and there is Ron Paul, who never plays tricks and never tells lies.
So who shall they cry for, one they can trust or the one again offering free lunches?
“Harridan Hillary and Bully Bill”© showing their true colors. She wanted to play Jeanne D'Arc but prefers the "fun" of gutter politics destroying anyone crossing them just like the 90's. No one likes reruns.
THE BILLARY SHOW represents two conniving, conceited, opportunistic scoundrels who will stoop to any low just to get to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue again. MADAME HRC is a wooden, plastic, phony, polarizing, and divisive carpetbagger who is full of tricks, drama and baggage.
IF MADAME HRC is the Dem nominee, I will switch party affiliation and vote Republican. Also, the Republicans will go to the polls in droves if MADAME HRC is nominated. She is the person who gets Reps united to vote of any stripe to oppose her.
MADAME HRC cannot galvanize the young and independent and Rep moderate vote. The BILLARY SHOW lost the Republican moderate female vote because of Monicagate.
Besides, the 'GW' machinery will send the BILLARY SHOW to the slaughter house in November with a landslide victory handed on a platinum plate to the Rep nominee.
We may be celebrating prematurely. The Clintoninstas are gearing up for a battle royal and will stop at nothing to win--they hever have. Watch for the race card flipping up more and more--with the strings pulled by anonymous political cadres. If they can paint Obama as the "black" candidate", instead of the Democratic canditate, that is all it will take to create a devisiveness that will rend the Democratic Party for years to come. But what do they care if they win--and I do mean 'they'. Digust will drive me to John McCain if their tricks work again. Are we still such fools?
I do! Good for Caroline, good for Teddy, good for The Observer! This middle-aged white woman would love to see a woman in the White House, but not THIS woman, not now. Hillary Clinton has done an excellent job for New York -- without her husband's "help" -- and I hope she will continue to do so well into the future, but Barack Obama is gifted, and special, and exactly what this country needs to help it repair the mess made by the Bush administration, to restore America's good name, and to move unite the country.
For the first time in years I feel a real sense of optimism and hope for the future. Caroline said it best, and I am very grateful to her and to her uncle Teddy for taking a stand and throwing their support to Barack Obama.
Yes we CAN!
Why can't the Obama supporters lower the level of invective against the Clintons (who committed the cardinal sin of bringing in eight years of relative peace and prosperity.)??? I will probably vote for Obama myself because I find him an inspirational candidate - despite his tendency to speak in generalities - but I don't have to justify my vote by demeaning Hillary Clinton, a woman who clearly wishes to do good for her country and the world.
Obama has chosen to take the high road...not the gutter like the Clintons....
Well, if Michael Vick's attack dogs can be turned into pets, perhaps Bill Clinton can be domesticated as well.
2 words bull shit a billon people like obama only 2 like u get a life tim
"The choice in this election is not about regions or religions or genders," Obama said at a boisterous victory rally. "It's not about rich versus poor, young versus old and it's not about black versus white. It's about the past versus the future."
Of course, the question must be asked: Is Hillary running for president or is Bill running for a third term? I seem to recall Alabama Governor George Wallace pulling the same stunt with his wife.
last i checked Harlem is IN Manhattan.
Yep - I agree wholeheartedly. I don't expect anyone to be a perfect president -- just a more intelligent, tough and honest one with better intentions than we've had these past couple of decades. Barack Obama's got plenty enough fight in him to work with our military and the dignity and class we need to repair our tattered relations. Hillary and Bill lost so much of my respect, they made my decision that much easier. Edwards hasn't been faring well -- when Obama gets the nom, I hope Edwards is his VP. He'd also make a great attorney general
Obama has reacted to Ms. Clinton in the same smarmy, sexist way that all the male candidates who run against her do. Perhaps the sight of a woman who is intelligently responding to and debating with them is just too much -- witness the level of condescension writ large upon both him and Edwards in the debate before NH. Think what you like, but don't dare say that Obama is "above the fray". It's just that when men condescend to women, it's somehow "ok" whereas when anyone says anything "racist" it's not. Black men could vote decades before women, and both men and women need to think about what that means before giving men a free pass to look down on us.
For him (Obama) to gain so much respect,votes, and admiration from so many different people as well as a different kind of people as a black man, what if he's a white man? I think he is an engine of change. Why? Because accepting the color of his skin is the beginning of change. How much are you majority Americans willing to accept the change, if you're then the changes start with accepting the color of Obama's skin in addition to the desparate needed of change in DC.
If the majority of America is too insecured to accept the colorful(Obama)changes, then it would be a fairy tale for him and for America . However, it would be a memorable and great historical political fairy tale.
I know America is more intelligent and secure as a nation and will not let the color of a person's skin be a factor in our decision in selecting a sounding mind and caring President for the United States. A person who is a Leader should have love for his country and country men and women. Not the love for oil.....LIKE BUSH!
Wrong decision can kill people in a matter of life and death situation. Not only Osama Bin Laden killed many Americans in New York, but Bush kills even more, in fact, a lot of Americans by sending them to Iraq to fight his oil war. Not only Americans but those innocent civilians people in Iraq too. This is what happen when you play politic with people's lives for your own personal gain. I wonder how he(Bush)sleep at night now a day and will be sleeping at night after his Presidency knowing many people dies as a result of his bad decision. It is not only good but it is an honor to die for your country defending it but not for political gain for a President who's interest is solely in oil. He might not have said it but it is the fact. Osama is only a reason for Bush to make his long time waited opportunity to strike Iraq. Does it really makes America more safer? Does it makes our economy better? Does it makes our gasoline and oil prices cheaper? No!!!! In fact, it is the opposite.
connect these dots.
Rezko, Auchi, Chalabi. and you will see how the next year will unfold for Obama